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EP Vantage报告:生物技术2013繁荣景象难以为继

  1. 2013
  2. EP Vantage
  3. 生物技术

来源:生物谷 2014-03-13 09:26

EP Vantage发布报告,预测2013年生物技术的繁荣景象在2014年将难以为继。

2014年3月12日讯 /生物谷BIOON/ --归功于一些勇于冒险的风险投资家、乐观的公众投资者及监管机构,2013年可谓是药物开发行业春风得意的一年。然而,尽管业界已带着乐观情绪跨入新的一年,2014年早期迹象却表明,去年的繁荣景象可能难以为继。

Evaluate Pharma旗下EP Vantage发布了一份年度报告,描绘了生物制药行业在过去一年中的美好景象:近45家新的生物技术公司公开上市,净募得30亿美金,只有9家公司市值在年底缩水。同时,并购交易市场,平均交易额飙升至7.08亿美元,近乎是2012年数字的2倍。这种利好是全行业的,如纳斯达克生物科技指数在2013年收涨66%,热情程度远高于2000年“基因组学泡沫”的早期峰值。

监管方面,尽管2013年获批的药物总数少于2012年,但在未来的销售额却能够弥补这种差距。根据EP Vantage的报告,2013年获批的33个新药,合并的5年预期销售额预计将达到254亿美元,大幅高于过去10年的峰值,比2012年获批的43个新药的5年预期销售额高50%。2013年获批的药物中,8个药物预计将在2018年成为重磅药物,其中,吉利德的丙肝药物Sovaldi、百健艾迪的口服多发性硬化症药物Tecfidera、罗氏的抗体偶联药物Kadcyla将成为领头羊。

然而,促成2013年丰收年的各因素的洪流,在2014年可能难以维持,生物技术公司可能是其自身成功的受害者。表现良好的股票和看好的市场行情,已将药物开发商的市值推的越来越高,这将导致一些恶性循环的发生。大型制药公司可能会感到害怕并远离投资者们高价被收购的渴求。如果生物制药并购市场在未来一年干涸,IPO热潮可能是罪魁祸首。

同时,药物销售潜力方面,EP Vantage指出,2014年潜在重磅药物的数量预计将少于过去4年中的任何一年,这是2014年难以重复2013年创记录研发生产力的一个信号,同时也提醒投资者药物研发行业的跌宕起伏。而创投气候已日益成为富人和穷人之间的故事,即继首次融资之后股价持续下跌。去年,创投交易保持平稳在45亿美元,但自2006以来,这一总额由极少数公司瓜分。

不过,生物制药的天空很难塌落。今年年初IPO收成基本上都还不错,风险资本方面也有稳定的交易,推动着初创公司前进,同时一些高调的临床试验数据也提振了行业的股价表现。没有人能预计2014年将会重演2013年的好运,也没有人预测2014年会是世界末日,大多数投资者都不会想要提前离场,而是乐意静候一些动荡的出现。(生物谷Bioon.com)

英文原文:Inside biotech's big year: 2013's approvals, IPOs and sky-high valuations will be tough to top

Thanks to some risk-accepting venture capitalists, optimistic public investors and compromising regulators, 2013 was a banner year for the drug development business. But while much of the industry's optimism has rolled on into the new year, early signs suggest 2014 may struggle to keep the pace.

EvaluatePharma's EP Vantage released an expansive annual report that paints a rosy picture of the past year in biopharma. Nearly 45 biotechs went public for a net $3 billion in cash raised, and only 9 of 2013's entrants had decreased in value by year's end. Meanwhile, the average deal value soared to $708 million, nearly twice 2012's figure and the highest it's been since before the downturn, according to EP Vantage's numbers. And the benefits are industrywide, as the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index closed 2013 up 66%, far above its earlier peak in the midst of the genomics bubble in 2000.

On the regulatory side, while 2013's number of approved drugs fell short of 2012's record haul, the year is likely to more than make up for that disparity in the dollar column. According to EP Vantage, 2013's entrants are projected to bring in a combined $25.4 billion in 2018, adding up to 50% above 2012's class and making for the best 5-year-out sales figures ever. Eight of those drugs are expected to peak above $1 billion on their own.

But the confluence of factors that made 2013 such a barn-burner may be hard to sustain, and biotech could become a victim of its own success. Well-performing stocks and bullish public markets have helped pushed valuations ever higher for drug developers, creating something of a vicious cycle through which Big Pharma might get scared away from the high-dollar buyouts investors crave when they invest in biotechs to begin with. If the biopharma M&A market dries up over the next year, the IPO boom could be to blame.

Meanwhile, on the drug potential side, EP Vantage points out that 2014's class of likely launches features fewer potential blockbusters than any of the last four years. And the venture capital climate has increasingly been a story of haves and have-nots, with first-time financings continuing their decline. Last year, VC deals held firm at $4.5 billion, but that total was split among the fewest companies since 2006.

But the sky is hardly falling in biopharma. This year's early crop of IPOs have largely been success stories, all while a steady flow of deals on the VC side have kept startups rolling and some high-profile trial results have buoyed the sector's stock performance. No one's forecasting a repeat of 2013's good fortune, but, as Mann BioInvest's Andy Smith told EP Vantage, no one's predicting the end of days, either, and most investors are willing to wait out some turbulence.

"You don't want to be the first one to leave a party, but you want out before the cops arrive," Smith said. "And I can't hear any sirens yet."

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